{"id":18172,"date":"2018-03-01T17:08:38","date_gmt":"2018-03-01T21:08:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/scientific-publications\/"},"modified":"2023-09-13T19:44:29","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T23:44:29","slug":"publicaciones-cientificas","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/recursos\/publicaciones\/publicaciones-cientificas\/?lang=es","title":{"rendered":"Publicaciones Cientificas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-vbb1anq-1b9bed97a964b0a81a938e76228661d2\">\n.avia-section.av-vbb1anq-1b9bed97a964b0a81a938e76228661d2 .av-parallax .av-parallax-inner{\nbackground-repeat:no-repeat;\nbackground-image:url(https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/SciPubs1920.jpg);\nbackground-position:50% 50%;\nbackground-attachment:scroll;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div id='av_section_1'  class='avia-section av-vbb1anq-1b9bed97a964b0a81a938e76228661d2 main_color avia-section-no-padding avia-no-border-styling  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_submenu  avia-builder-el-first  av-parallax-section avia-bg-style-parallax av-minimum-height av-minimum-height-custom  container_wrap fullsize'  data-section-bg-repeat='no-repeat' data-av_minimum_height_px='200'><div class='av-parallax' data-avia-parallax-ratio='0.3' ><div class='av-parallax-inner main_color avia-full-stretch'><\/div><\/div><div class='container av-section-cont-open' style='height:200px'><main  role=\"main\" itemprop=\"mainContentOfPage\"  class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-18172'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-pavgf0-358e8d79d43a8b01fe28fbdb623b9770\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-pavgf0-358e8d79d43a8b01fe28fbdb623b9770{\npadding-bottom:0;\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-pavgf0-358e8d79d43a8b01fe28fbdb623b9770 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-pavgf0-358e8d79d43a8b01fe28fbdb623b9770 .special-heading-inner-border{\nborder-color:#ffffff;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-pavgf0-358e8d79d43a8b01fe28fbdb623b9770 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-pavgf0-358e8d79d43a8b01fe28fbdb623b9770 av-special-heading-h1 custom-color-heading blockquote modern-quote modern-centered  avia-builder-el-1  avia-builder-el-no-sibling '><h1 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Publicaciones Cientificas<\/h1><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/main><!-- close content main element --><\/div><\/div><div class='clear'><\/div><div id='sub_menu1'  class='av-submenu-container av-jvbakf25-af36e2ec34b619cab99dc0be29438e7b header_color  avia-builder-el-2  el_after_av_section  el_before_av_layout_row  av-sticky-submenu submenu-not-first container_wrap fullsize' style='z-index:301' ><div class='container av-menu-mobile-disabled av-submenu-pos-center'><ul id='av-custom-submenu-1' class='av-subnav-menu'>\n<li class='menu-item av-48ynbw-1dee9d03f56a31e24d0f447e10b4ea56 menu-item-top-level menu-item-top-level-1'><a href='https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/recursos\/?lang=es' ><span class='avia-bullet'><\/span><span class='avia-menu-text'>Recursos<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li class='menu-item av-wjl67w-93d4bea77ea3f19a0652fdef33af6437 menu-item-top-level menu-item-top-level-2'><a href='https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/recursos\/publicaciones\/?lang=es' ><span class='avia-bullet'><\/span><span class='avia-menu-text'>Publicaciones<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div><\/div><div class='sticky_placeholder'><\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-1'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-770f5b03d1e4e5b6a1b384c732065f25 entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_submenu  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-d758d083b6ada9c64a0473c1353532ca\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-d758d083b6ada9c64a0473c1353532ca{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-d758d083b6ada9c64a0473c1353532ca{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-d758d083b6ada9c64a0473c1353532ca av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-4  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-k6wjtkgl-ab4a2391b93b84f86506d0022dff5f00\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-k6wjtkgl-ab4a2391b93b84f86506d0022dff5f00{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-k6wjtkgl-ab4a2391b93b84f86506d0022dff5f00 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-k6wjtkgl-ab4a2391b93b84f86506d0022dff5f00 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-k6wjtkgl-ab4a2391b93b84f86506d0022dff5f00 av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-5  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first  av-linked-heading'><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >El curioso caso de Capsicum chinense (Solanaceae) en Puerto Rico: un fantasma bot\u00e1nico de amplio cultivo y consumo<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-2rdmvw-b04eb2aa80c0eb04466143859a0ea5ac\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-2rdmvw-b04eb2aa80c0eb04466143859a0ea5ac{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-2rdmvw-b04eb2aa80c0eb04466143859a0ea5ac .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-2rdmvw-b04eb2aa80c0eb04466143859a0ea5ac .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-2rdmvw-b04eb2aa80c0eb04466143859a0ea5ac av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-6  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-c784f6509bdfdeb415926d3fb4d75f62'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>El g\u00e9nero Capsicum incluye cinco especies domesticadas cuyos frutos constituyen parte fundamental de la gastronom\u00eda tradicional de diferentes culturas. En pa\u00edses de habla hispana se les conoce com\u00fanmente como chiles, pimientos, aj\u00edes y\/o guindillas. En particular, Capsicum chinense es una especie de amplio cultivo y consumo en la isla de Puerto Rico, pero esta no se encuentra reportada en los listados flor\u00edsticos y literatura bot\u00e1nica pertinentes a la regi\u00f3n. Investigamos la presencia de Capsicum chinense en Puerto Rico, y presentamos los primeros registros bot\u00e1nicos y ejemplares de herbario de la isla.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-4ddvz7a-8df496ad570244bbdbc9538e41c16cfa\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-4ddvz7a-8df496ad570244bbdbc9538e41c16cfa{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-4ddvz7a-8df496ad570244bbdbc9538e41c16cfa hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-122-28913f8b07c88a332aae9e438cf3e71d'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Johann D. Crespo, Steve Maldonado Silvestrini, William A. Gould<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2023<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Centro Clim\u00e1tico del Caribe, Servicio Forestal del Departamento de Agricultura de los EE. UU., Instituto Internacional de Dasonom\u00eda Tropical (Caribbean Climate Hub, USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry; USFS \u2013 IITF),San Juan, 00926, Puerto Rico; Herbario UPRRP, Departamento de Biolog\u00eda, Universidad de Puerto Rico, Recinto de R\u00edo Piedras, San Juan, 00931,Puerto Rico USDA Forest Service<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-41h7vna-5e5099f590d104ec04004d380982477b\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-41h7vna-5e5099f590d104ec04004d380982477b{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-41h7vna-5e5099f590d104ec04004d380982477b hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-10  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-ccc2540fe191c0d50fd2d19eafaabf68'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Crespo, Johann &amp; Maldonado Silvestrini, Steve &amp; Gould, William. (2023). El curioso caso de Capsicum chinense (Solanaceae) en Puerto Rico: un fantasma bot\u00e1nico de amplio cultivo y consumo. Desde el Herbario CICY 15: 151-159 (10\/agosto\/2023) Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Cient\u00edfica de Yucat\u00e1n, A.C. ISSN: 2395-8790.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-01c7c3fafa23c528552ccaa8b8ff37e7\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-01c7c3fafa23c528552ccaa8b8ff37e7{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-01c7c3fafa23c528552ccaa8b8ff37e7{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-01c7c3fafa23c528552ccaa8b8ff37e7 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-12  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-57b4f0fec669891c5017c0db2b049356'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/2023-08-10-JCrespo-El-curioso-caso-de-Capsicum-chinense-1.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">2023-08-10-JCrespo-El-curioso-caso-de-Capsicum-chinense-1<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-3ad5uie-e605309ee2be631ee82055f77411e795\">\n.flex_column.av-3ad5uie-e605309ee2be631ee82055f77411e795{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-3ad5uie-e605309ee2be631ee82055f77411e795 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-14  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-116-d697a3bd77eeb2aa1ba424a7ec6e6750'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/2023-08-10-JCrespo-El-curioso-caso-de-Capsicum-chinense-1.pdf\">El curioso caso de Capsicum chinense (Solanaceae) en Puerto Rico: un fantasma bot\u00e1nico de amplio cultivo y consumo (1.3 MB)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div id='av-layout-grid-2'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-632ozzw-6b650d32c3f51ee0138d5a34685bc941 entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-16  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-5tqb37g-3076239c3522f647e657c2d323d79c3b\">\n.flex_cell.av-5tqb37g-3076239c3522f647e657c2d323d79c3b{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-5tqb37g-3076239c3522f647e657c2d323d79c3b{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-5tqb37g-3076239c3522f647e657c2d323d79c3b av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-17  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-5e5n6u4-4333134ee829bccb11359710d8f36438\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-5e5n6u4-4333134ee829bccb11359710d8f36438{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-5e5n6u4-4333134ee829bccb11359710d8f36438 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-5e5n6u4-4333134ee829bccb11359710d8f36438 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-5e5n6u4-4333134ee829bccb11359710d8f36438 av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-18  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Cuba, Puerto Rico, and Climate Change: Shared Challenges in Agriculture, Forestry, and Opportunities for Collaboration<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-4y13ev0-1f88007743a9564c8e86032d76aae7cc\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-4y13ev0-1f88007743a9564c8e86032d76aae7cc{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-4y13ev0-1f88007743a9564c8e86032d76aae7cc .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-4y13ev0-1f88007743a9564c8e86032d76aae7cc .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-4y13ev0-1f88007743a9564c8e86032d76aae7cc av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-19  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-4fulljw-0d8f11edead9fd4f8e2b9da2bacb67a7'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Cuba and Puerto Rico have much in common and have been referred to in a poem by Lola Rodr\u00edguez de T\u00edo as \u201c\u2026son de un p\u00e1jaro las dos alas\u201d (two wings of one bird). Throughout their histories, they have faced similar challenges in maintaining food security and ecosystem health. Global climate change now threatens both islands with parallel challenges to their similar cropping systems, forests, and producer demographics. Rising temperatures and resultant shifts in climate patterns have led to an increased occurrence of drought, punctuated by tropical storms and hurricanes of increasing intensity. Both Puerto Rico and Cuba have historically found innovative ways to harness the ingenuity and resilience of their people. Building new partnerships and frameworks for technology transfer, knowledge sharing, and innovation across the Caribbean islands has the potential to enhance adaptive capacity, food security, and ecosystem services, and to ensure that the islands are prepared for climatic changes in coming decades. This report provides a brief historical overview of the agricultural and forestry sectors in Cuba, outlines regional climate projections and their expected effects on working lands in both Cuba and Puerto Rico, and broadly assesses adaptive capacity and vulnerability, making suggestions for building adaptive and resilient working lands systems.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-3xdi9oc-045920dc83a09ba5e33b07b7534b8bd0\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-3xdi9oc-045920dc83a09ba5e33b07b7534b8bd0{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-3xdi9oc-045920dc83a09ba5e33b07b7534b8bd0 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-21  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-3b2634s-e896c44830efd3ce6be7ca449035760c'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Stephen J. Fain, Kathleen McGinley, William A. Gould, Isabel K. Par\u00e9s, and Grizelle Gonz\u00e1lez<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2020<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> U.S. Forest Service International Insitute of Tropical Forestry General Technical Report<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-2yhqsjg-3b4f61b96dff4f6982ac7ea5a2027b62\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-2yhqsjg-3b4f61b96dff4f6982ac7ea5a2027b62{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-2yhqsjg-3b4f61b96dff4f6982ac7ea5a2027b62 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-23  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-8uyasc-473b9c4b0413bc3a7d8d993421eb4faf'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Fain, Stephen J.; McGinley, Kathleen; Gould, William A.; Par\u00e9s, Isabel K.; Gonz\u00e1lez, Grizelle. 2020. Cuba, Puerto Rico, and climate change: shared challenges in agriculture, forestry, and opportunities for collaboration. Gen. Tech. Rep. IITF-GTR-49. San Juan, PR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry. 39 p.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1zl5b5o-62b1cd3e680321829f4aed1def66f77b\">\n.flex_cell.av-1zl5b5o-62b1cd3e680321829f4aed1def66f77b{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-1zl5b5o-62b1cd3e680321829f4aed1def66f77b{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-1zl5b5o-62b1cd3e680321829f4aed1def66f77b av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-25  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-5t83zw-150dbb6a30e08d37822b8157529526c7'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/iitf_gtr_49.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">iitf_gtr_49<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-10tm0f0-babe37760882f307fb85fc5db0cb172d\">\n.flex_column.av-10tm0f0-babe37760882f307fb85fc5db0cb172d{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-10tm0f0-babe37760882f307fb85fc5db0cb172d av_one_full  avia-builder-el-27  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-q8vb24-be1d551b6ee8966047ebeafaaa09ab96'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/iitf_gtr_49.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cuba, Puerto Rico, and Climate Change: Shared Challenges in Agriculture, Forestry, and Opportunities for Collaboration (2.8 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/p>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-3'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-124-8aa65e3d0d73a32de530dcfa51203767 entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-29  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-123-16950e3ebed16c7bbaf217458059e880\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-123-16950e3ebed16c7bbaf217458059e880{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-123-16950e3ebed16c7bbaf217458059e880{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-123-16950e3ebed16c7bbaf217458059e880 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-30  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-k6sb88u5-c5b2614e264adacf956af9c6c1b8e046\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-k6sb88u5-c5b2614e264adacf956af9c6c1b8e046{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-k6sb88u5-c5b2614e264adacf956af9c6c1b8e046 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-k6sb88u5-c5b2614e264adacf956af9c6c1b8e046 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-k6sb88u5-c5b2614e264adacf956af9c6c1b8e046 av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-31  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Opportunities and Challenges for Hurricane Resilience on Agricultural and Forest Land in the U.S. Southeast and Caribbean<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-nl4szg-471e0c513c39b32229700bb1a32c66e7\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-nl4szg-471e0c513c39b32229700bb1a32c66e7{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-nl4szg-471e0c513c39b32229700bb1a32c66e7 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-nl4szg-471e0c513c39b32229700bb1a32c66e7 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-nl4szg-471e0c513c39b32229700bb1a32c66e7 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-32  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-120-00539ad6b92e7f10cc41c3e939583bfe'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Three storms in the 2017 hurricane season caused $265 billion in damages in the U.S. Southeast and Caribbean, including billions in losses in the agriculture and forestry sector. Climate<br \/>\nchange projections indicate that such disastrous hurricane seasons are becoming more normal. Working land management sectors need to prepare for this future. However, few studies evaluate hurricane resilience strategies, or challenges faced by land managers surrounding hurricane events. Boundary organizations are critical to hurricane preparedness and recovery, advising land managers before hurricanes, and often supporting recovery efforts. Here, we rely on public advisors\u2019 experiences to understand how land managers pursue hurricane resilience. Using focus groups and an online survey of three agencies in the Southeast U.S. and U.S. Caribbean (n = 607), we identify challenges faced by land managers before and after hurricanes, and the strategies they implement to minimize damage. We learn that land managers are faced with many diverse and unique challenges related to hurricanes, but that long-term planning for hurricane events is uncommon compared to shorter-term preparedness and recovery activities. Efforts towards hurricane resilience should incorporate local needs, align with other land management goals, and increase overall resilience to climate change and related stressors. The results of this research can guide state\/territorial and national-level prioritizations regarding hurricane resilience, as well as identify research needs on hurricane resilience strategies.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-4ddvz7a-121-215fd1104c8da899b4bbae9b2b586778\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-4ddvz7a-121-215fd1104c8da899b4bbae9b2b586778{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-4ddvz7a-121-215fd1104c8da899b4bbae9b2b586778 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-34  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-111-a30015d10c07a5c820797a8038325d02'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Sarah S. Wiener; Nora L. \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos; Angela B. Lindsey<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2020<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Sustainability<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/su12041364\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/su12041364 <\/a> *registering DOI<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-41h7vna-119-61170cb8c96359e0c02446a28fe3de63\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-41h7vna-119-61170cb8c96359e0c02446a28fe3de63{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-41h7vna-119-61170cb8c96359e0c02446a28fe3de63 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-36  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-118-eca13fcef6a19e6250da7952d36f5e60'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Wiener, Sarah S.; \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos, Nora L.; Lindsey, Angela B. 2020. Opportunities and Challenges for Hurricane Resilience on Agricultural and Forest Land in the U.S. Southeast and Caribbean. Sustainability. 12(4), 1364. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/su12041364<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-117-177d8f6ad9c261088ceda6c9b6f9444e\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-117-177d8f6ad9c261088ceda6c9b6f9444e{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-117-177d8f6ad9c261088ceda6c9b6f9444e{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-117-177d8f6ad9c261088ceda6c9b6f9444e av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-38  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-114-9b677c4b23f27abb436f3cb1885cdc6e'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ja_iitf_2020_wiener001.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2020_wiener001<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-3ad5uie-115-e0243170edee2d2c9b6a5c4941c81c03\">\n.flex_column.av-3ad5uie-115-e0243170edee2d2c9b6a5c4941c81c03{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-3ad5uie-115-e0243170edee2d2c9b6a5c4941c81c03 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-40  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-105-3ed2deb7b3d53a6e63e1a2b55bacc987'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/ja_iitf_2020_wiener001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Opportunities and Challenges for Hurricane Resilience on Agricultural and Forest Land in the U.S. Southeast and Caribbean (1.7 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-4'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-113-80ceecb06908d7db0e754dff1941c066 entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-42  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-112-89db1e25a1b6b28e00a79493421a0a09\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-112-89db1e25a1b6b28e00a79493421a0a09{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-112-89db1e25a1b6b28e00a79493421a0a09{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-112-89db1e25a1b6b28e00a79493421a0a09 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-43  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-27hurfa-1b9ebbc4ed922b9d85bd9c02607aae2c\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-27hurfa-1b9ebbc4ed922b9d85bd9c02607aae2c{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-27hurfa-1b9ebbc4ed922b9d85bd9c02607aae2c .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-27hurfa-1b9ebbc4ed922b9d85bd9c02607aae2c .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-27hurfa-1b9ebbc4ed922b9d85bd9c02607aae2c av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-44  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Hurricane Maria in the U.S. Caribbean: Disturbance Forces, Variation of Effects, and Implications for Future Storms<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1sapehi-124c0b4d8e11609886d6604a86423c30\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1sapehi-124c0b4d8e11609886d6604a86423c30{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1sapehi-124c0b4d8e11609886d6604a86423c30 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1sapehi-124c0b4d8e11609886d6604a86423c30 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1sapehi-124c0b4d8e11609886d6604a86423c30 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-45  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-109-7ba3fd66c6a6e8d035cda16f95fd4e7c'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>The impact of Hurricane Maria on the U.S. Caribbean was used to study the causes of remotely-sensed spatial variation in the effects of (1) vegetation index loss and (2) landslide occurrence. The vegetation index is a measure of canopy \u2018greenness\u2019, a combination of leaf chlorophyll, leaf area, canopy cover and structure. A generalized linear model was made for each kind of effect, using idealized maps of the hurricane forces, along with three landscape characteristics that were significantly associated. In each model, one of these characteristics was forest fragmentation, and another was a measure of disturbance-propensity. For the greenness loss model, the hurricane force was wind, the disturbance-propensity measure was initial greenness, and the third landscape characteristic was fraction forest cover. For the landslide occurrence model, the hurricane force was rain, the disturbance-propensity measure was amount of land slope, and the third landscape characteristic was soil clay content. The model of greenness loss had a pseudo R2 of 0.73 and showed the U.S. Caribbean lost 31% of its initial greenness from the hurricane, with 51% lost from the initial in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) from Hurricane Maria along with Hurricane Irma. More greenness disturbance was seen in areas with less wind sheltering, higher elevation and topographic sides. The model of landslide occurrence had a pseudo R2 of 0.53 and showed the U.S. Caribbean had 34% of its area and 52% of the LEF area with a landslide density of at least one in 1 km2 from Hurricane Maria. Four experiments with parameters from previous storms of wind speed, storm duration, rainfall, and forest structure over the same storm path and topographic landscape were run as examples of possible future scenarios. While intensity of the storm makes by far the largest scenario difference, forest fragmentation makes a sizable difference especially in vulnerable areas of high clay content or high wind susceptibility. This study showed the utility of simple hurricane force calculations connected with landscape characteristics and remote-sensing data to determine forest susceptibility to hurricane effects.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-4ddvz7a-110-ce68046a33bb15f7fe6ce55ab76ed3df\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-4ddvz7a-110-ce68046a33bb15f7fe6ce55ab76ed3df{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-4ddvz7a-110-ce68046a33bb15f7fe6ce55ab76ed3df hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-47  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-100-a988ceff2878caa5d14d46dd6f877c08'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Ashley Van Beusekom; Nora Alvarez-Berr\u00edos; William Gould; Maya Qui\u00f1ones; Grizelle Gonz\u00e1lez<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2018<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Remote Sensing<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs10091386\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs10091386<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-41h7vna-108-96297a9ba05704bad57db151d0fc4dd8\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-41h7vna-108-96297a9ba05704bad57db151d0fc4dd8{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-41h7vna-108-96297a9ba05704bad57db151d0fc4dd8 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-49  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-107-437dd38aa919c62ada4c125a103ea938'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Van Beusekom, Ashley; \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos, Nora; Gould, William; Qui\u00f1ones, Maya; Gonz\u00e1lez, Grizelle. 2018. Hurricane Maria in the U.S. Caribbean: Disturbance Forces, Variation of Effects, and Implications for Future Storms. Remote Sensing. 10(9): 1386-. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs10091386.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-106-afea6f4c7178ce0810bf4ab7da233266\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-106-afea6f4c7178ce0810bf4ab7da233266{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-106-afea6f4c7178ce0810bf4ab7da233266{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-106-afea6f4c7178ce0810bf4ab7da233266 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-51  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-103-b5940afbd3d1aa5879e23bfd8ef98ea7'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2018_vanbeusekom.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2018_vanbeusekom<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-3ad5uie-104-e4dd1fad55b7ae1d2f97f11a55e01515\">\n.flex_column.av-3ad5uie-104-e4dd1fad55b7ae1d2f97f11a55e01515{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-3ad5uie-104-e4dd1fad55b7ae1d2f97f11a55e01515 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-53  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-94-25dff35b9a70d1c8116a959e1b0d2f75'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2018_vanbeusekom.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hurricane Maria in the U.S. Caribbean: Disturbance Forces, Variation of Effects, and Implications for Future Storms (13.4 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-5'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-102-5f3f1be08f6e3826dbe30c3263c2bff8 entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-55  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-101-be2c74a959c2fa14878f66e691fb8d21\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-101-be2c74a959c2fa14878f66e691fb8d21{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-101-be2c74a959c2fa14878f66e691fb8d21{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-101-be2c74a959c2fa14878f66e691fb8d21 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-56  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1d47nj0-0f2f1c471f315d9183d43438f0555e7a\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1d47nj0-0f2f1c471f315d9183d43438f0555e7a{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1d47nj0-0f2f1c471f315d9183d43438f0555e7a .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1d47nj0-0f2f1c471f315d9183d43438f0555e7a .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1d47nj0-0f2f1c471f315d9183d43438f0555e7a av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-57  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Correlating drought conservation practices and drought vulnerability in a tropical agricultural system<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-266lr0-4f4f4238f6bbd7f6cf34cde1a3f72a05\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-266lr0-4f4f4238f6bbd7f6cf34cde1a3f72a05{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-266lr0-4f4f4238f6bbd7f6cf34cde1a3f72a05 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-266lr0-4f4f4238f6bbd7f6cf34cde1a3f72a05 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-266lr0-4f4f4238f6bbd7f6cf34cde1a3f72a05 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-58  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-98-a05bb05aed2c3ba0312df5d5a9a86851'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Recent droughts in Puerto Rico and throughout the Caribbean have emphasized the region&#8217;s agricultural vulnerability to this hazard and the increasing need for adaptation mechanisms to support sustainable production. In this study, we assessed the geographic extent of agricultural conservation practices incentivized by US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and evaluated their large-scale contribution to drought adaptability. We identified concentrations of drought-related practices (e.g. cover crops, ponds) applied between 2000 and 2016. Using information from spatial databases and interviews with experts, we assessed the spatial correlation between these practices and areas exposed to drought as identified by the US Drought Monitor. Between 2000 and 2016, Puerto Rico experienced seven drought episodes concentrated around the south, east and southeastern regions. The most profound drought occurred between 2014 and 2016 when the island experienced 80 consecutive weeks of moderate drought, 48 of severe drought and 33 of extreme drought conditions. A total of 44 drought-related conservation practices were applied at 6984 locations throughout 860 km2 of farmlands between 2000 and 2016 through the NRCS-Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP). Practices related to water availability were statistically clustered along the coasts, whereas soil and plant health practices were clustered in the mountainous region. While these concentrations strongly correlated with areas exposed to moderate drought conditions, >80% did not coincide with areas that experienced severe or extreme drought conditions, suggesting that areas highly exposed to drought conditions generally lacked drought preparedness assisted by EQIP. Climate projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of drought events, particularly in the eastern region of Puerto Rico. Our analysis highlighted the need to implement more conservation practices in these areas subject to drought intensification and exposure. Government programs intended to address vulnerabilities and enhance capacity and resilience may not be reaching areas of highest exposure. Recommendations include raising producer awareness of past and future exposure and making programs more accessible to a broader audience.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-4ddvz7a-99-ba79da11fa3c490bbf9d36aed55af733\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-4ddvz7a-99-ba79da11fa3c490bbf9d36aed55af733{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-4ddvz7a-99-ba79da11fa3c490bbf9d36aed55af733 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-60  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-89-59d4f8079ec10e37f7ed408ff750b021'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Nora \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos; Sandra Soto-Bay\u00f3; Eva Holupchinski; Stephen J. Fain; William A. Gould<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2018<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S174217051800011X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S174217051800011X<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-41h7vna-97-65790a35cdfddd149a1afef0b88b15e0\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-41h7vna-97-65790a35cdfddd149a1afef0b88b15e0{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-41h7vna-97-65790a35cdfddd149a1afef0b88b15e0 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-62  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-96-d573775ee17303477f67d4a9b8394767'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos, Nora L.; Soto-Bay\u00f3, Sandra; Holupchinski, Eva; Fain, Stephen J.; Gould, William A. 2018. Correlating drought conservation practices and drought vulnerability in a tropical agricultural system. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems. 33(03): 279-291. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S174217051800011X.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-95-3eb2256055a1a324e38ac71194ddde4f\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-95-3eb2256055a1a324e38ac71194ddde4f{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-95-3eb2256055a1a324e38ac71194ddde4f{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-95-3eb2256055a1a324e38ac71194ddde4f av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-64  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-92-106a339e1eafc1a3368661ef38b86b3a'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2018_alvarezbarrios001.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2018_alvarezbarrios001<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-3ad5uie-93-36700ac92b05a99030c83b1d96cdbcf0\">\n.flex_column.av-3ad5uie-93-36700ac92b05a99030c83b1d96cdbcf0{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-3ad5uie-93-36700ac92b05a99030c83b1d96cdbcf0 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-66  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-85-b82048cec488631ae94bc5cd6e91d1e7'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2018_alvarezbarrios001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Correlating drought conservation practices and drought vulnerability in a tropical agricultural system (671 KB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-6'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-91-f33d780eea3ec50534f0d4f014b329e6 entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-68  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-90-192370fa75ad852c6b4ffce44a8db708\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-90-192370fa75ad852c6b4ffce44a8db708{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-90-192370fa75ad852c6b4ffce44a8db708{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-90-192370fa75ad852c6b4ffce44a8db708 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-69  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-88-2f8883329b60d5832954c11526603cfd'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><div id=\"NCA4-Caribbean\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-26clgf0-3d7573f24ed3a3d294ddb296a56ff9e8\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-26clgf0-3d7573f24ed3a3d294ddb296a56ff9e8{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-26clgf0-3d7573f24ed3a3d294ddb296a56ff9e8 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-26clgf0-3d7573f24ed3a3d294ddb296a56ff9e8 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-26clgf0-3d7573f24ed3a3d294ddb296a56ff9e8 av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-71  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_heading '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II<\/h2><div class='av-subheading av-subheading_below'><p>Chapter: U.S. Caribbean<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1kycz3w-5c3caadfb1772567efc7624922ee695f\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1kycz3w-5c3caadfb1772567efc7624922ee695f{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1kycz3w-5c3caadfb1772567efc7624922ee695f .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1kycz3w-5c3caadfb1772567efc7624922ee695f .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1kycz3w-5c3caadfb1772567efc7624922ee695f av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-72  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-81-fa0250f61de66e7ba01fd8ccee675815'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ykvz7a-291d965ed72f25ee2d12d9f54b140092\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ykvz7a-291d965ed72f25ee2d12d9f54b140092{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ykvz7a-291d965ed72f25ee2d12d9f54b140092 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-74  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-80-ab6cf126891dda8639d7c615381f47b8'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> William Gould; Nora \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos; F Aponte-Gonz\u00e1lez; W Archibald; J.H. Bowden; L Carrubba; W Crespo; Stephen Joshua Fain; Grizelle Gonzalez; A Goulbourne; E Harmsen; Eva Holupchinski; Azad Henareh Khalyani; J Kossin; A.J. Leinberger; V.I. Marrero-Santiago; O. Mart\u00ednez-S\u00e1nchez; Kathleen McGinley; P M\u00e9ndez-L\u00e1zaro; J Morell; M.M. Oyola; Isabel K. Par\u00e9s-Ramos; R Pulwarty; W.V. Sweet; A Terando; S Torres-Gonz\u00e1lez<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2018<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7930\/NCA4.2018.CH20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7930\/NCA4.2018.CH20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ij0ng6-ff4b00cd96639b63937a66f7168a52f8\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ij0ng6-ff4b00cd96639b63937a66f7168a52f8{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ij0ng6-ff4b00cd96639b63937a66f7168a52f8 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-76  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-87-05cda693b40d83fd6fb130a58667fe74'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Gould, W.A.; D\u00edaz, E.L.; \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos, N.L.; Aponte-Gonz\u00e1lez, F.; Archibald, W.; Bowden, J.H.; Carrubba, L.; Crespo, W.; Fain, S.J.; Gonz\u00e1lez, G.; Goulbourne, A.; Harmsen, E.; Holupchinski, E.; Khalyani, A.H.; Kossin, J.; Leinberger, A.J.; Marrero-Santiago, V.I.; Mart\u00ednez-S\u00e1nchez, O.; McGinley, K.; M\u00e9ndez-L\u00e1zaro, P.; Morell, J. ; Oyola, M.M.; I.K. Par\u00e9s-Ramos, I.K.; Pulwarty, R.; Sweet, W.V.; Terando, A.; Torres-Gonz\u00e1lez, S. 2018: U.S. Caribbean. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Reidmiller, D.R.; Avery, C.W.; Easterling, D.R.; Kunkel, K.E.; Lewis, K.L.M.; Maycock, T.K.; Stewart, B.C. eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 809\u2013871. doi: 10.7930\/NCA4.2018.CH20<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-86-00a3e2dd47de2e58c709e27bbb3f9e35\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-86-00a3e2dd47de2e58c709e27bbb3f9e35{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-86-00a3e2dd47de2e58c709e27bbb3f9e35{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-86-00a3e2dd47de2e58c709e27bbb3f9e35 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-78  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-84-7063cdffcdf4c5b48c549526f0ca7559'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/bc_iitf_2019_gould001.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">bc_iitf_2019_gould001<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15da1ee-c1cdd5349d3d85455715a43b6a66c312\">\n.flex_column.av-15da1ee-c1cdd5349d3d85455715a43b6a66c312{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-15da1ee-c1cdd5349d3d85455715a43b6a66c312 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-80  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-74-ab1e8845c6c42e683fa5045371a33201'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/bc_iitf_2019_gould001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II. Chapter: U.S. Caribbean (15.4 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-7'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-83-348265a05f7f1fc7c0c77430ea9c6be5 entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-82  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-82-b8483077a9f806027b343fd345e34e03\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-82-b8483077a9f806027b343fd345e34e03{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-82-b8483077a9f806027b343fd345e34e03{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-82-b8483077a9f806027b343fd345e34e03 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-83  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-14s309i-e530e94d89a40c65ba479196cc04fc1a\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-14s309i-e530e94d89a40c65ba479196cc04fc1a{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-14s309i-e530e94d89a40c65ba479196cc04fc1a .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-14s309i-e530e94d89a40c65ba479196cc04fc1a .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-14s309i-e530e94d89a40c65ba479196cc04fc1a av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-84  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-t6ffee-70e648d55d356e005394c88e42f6104d\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-t6ffee-70e648d55d356e005394c88e42f6104d{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-t6ffee-70e648d55d356e005394c88e42f6104d .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-t6ffee-70e648d55d356e005394c88e42f6104d .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-t6ffee-70e648d55d356e005394c88e42f6104d av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-85  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-78-79eca3648dd00c197a5563eac7fd2208'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant in the tropics. Climate change has the potential to greatly expand fire-prone areas to moist and wet tropical forests and grasslands that have been traditionally less fire-prone, and to extend and create more temporal variability in fire seasons. We built a machine learning random forest classifier to analyze the relationship between climatic, socio-economic, and fire history data with fire occurrence and extent for the years 2003\u20132011 in Puerto Rico, nearly 35,000 fires. Using classifiers based on climate measurements alone, we found that the climate space is a reliable associate, if not a predictor, of fire occurrence and extent in this environment. We found a strong relationship between occurrence and a change from average weather conditions, and between extent and severity of weather conditions. The probability that the random forest classifiers will rank a positive example higher than a negative example is 0.8\u20130.89 in the classifiers for deciding if a fire occurs, and 0.64\u20130.69 in the classifiers for deciding if the fire is greater than 5 ha. Future climate projections of extreme seasons indicate increased potential for fire occurrence with larger extents.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ykvz7a-79-a71c857513a63d333b0c7799f0dd7c8f\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ykvz7a-79-a71c857513a63d333b0c7799f0dd7c8f{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ykvz7a-79-a71c857513a63d333b0c7799f0dd7c8f hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-87  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-69-16606103d0675b58ff6e82b373f002e4'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Ashley E. Van Beusekom; William A. Gould; A. Carolina Monmany; Azad Henareh Khalyani; Maya Qui\u00f1ones; Stephen J. Fain; Maria Jos\u00e9 Andrade-N\u00fa\u00f1ez; Grizelle Gonz\u00e1lez<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2018<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Climatic Change<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-2045-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-2045-6<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ij0ng6-77-440948334d697f2af640230540946932\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ij0ng6-77-440948334d697f2af640230540946932{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ij0ng6-77-440948334d697f2af640230540946932 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-89  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-76-df0e56a1a91062850b1e989c7d690bb6'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Gould, William A.; Monmany, A. Carolina; Khalyani, Azad Henareh; Qui\u00f1ones, Maya; Fain, Stephen J.; Andrade-N\u00fa\u00f1ez, Maria Jos\u00e9; Gonz\u00e1lez, Grizelle. 2018. Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico. Climatic Change. 146:117\u2013131. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-2045-6.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-75-25eee5f4d05113241a4f568955703694\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-75-25eee5f4d05113241a4f568955703694{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-75-25eee5f4d05113241a4f568955703694{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-75-25eee5f4d05113241a4f568955703694 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-91  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-72-bb9b51bb2bf4196005f7b4d21e4ea6a1'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_vanbeusekom002.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2017_vanbeusekom002<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15da1ee-73-6ffe46c795eb678b02aff22b64607a57\">\n.flex_column.av-15da1ee-73-6ffe46c795eb678b02aff22b64607a57{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-15da1ee-73-6ffe46c795eb678b02aff22b64607a57 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-93  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-63-c749abb44c24fb0acee83df4b9849209'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_vanbeusekom002.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico (4.2 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-8'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-71-bfe7ca1be652d2c4d1b396d158f1e0cd entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-95  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-70-5b9371609655557c099c39338a85d83c\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-70-5b9371609655557c099c39338a85d83c{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-70-5b9371609655557c099c39338a85d83c{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-70-5b9371609655557c099c39338a85d83c av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-96  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1zmr59y-95919a3fb0efa1b3becda9455f690134\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1zmr59y-95919a3fb0efa1b3becda9455f690134{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1zmr59y-95919a3fb0efa1b3becda9455f690134 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1zmr59y-95919a3fb0efa1b3becda9455f690134 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1zmr59y-95919a3fb0efa1b3becda9455f690134 av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-97  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Assessing climate vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies for resilient beef and dairy operations in the tropics<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1iabq0m-1cea83a42105d9a63dfba11578245b60\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1iabq0m-1cea83a42105d9a63dfba11578245b60{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1iabq0m-1cea83a42105d9a63dfba11578245b60 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1iabq0m-1cea83a42105d9a63dfba11578245b60 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1iabq0m-1cea83a42105d9a63dfba11578245b60 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-98  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-67-b1e65a0fe96fee8b9eee22bbb4e1261d'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Cattle ranchers and dairy farmers operating throughout many tropical regions are experiencing major challenges associated with climate change such as higher incidence of heat stress and drought. These effects can result in reduced productivity of rangeland, shortage of nutritional feed, increased heat stress on animals, and high energy costs for cooling. High temperatures and resultant heat stress reduce animal productivity and increase the proliferation and survival of parasites and disease pathogens. Warming reduces the ability of dairy cattle to produce milk and gain weight and can also lower conception rates. This paper reviews research from the Caribbean on heat tolerant traits in bovine and presents evidence that introducing a &#8220;slick hair&#8221; gene into Holstein cows by crossbreeding with Senepols may increase thermotolerance and productivity. As in other parts of the tropics, principal cattle breeds in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been largely introduced from temperate regions. Research indicates these animals may be poorly adapted to rising temperatures, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to chronic heat stress and reduced productivity. Adaptive practices have been developed in breeding and pasture management programs including selection for more heat resistant genotypes, silvopasturing and crop diversification in forage production, and optimizing facilities and practices to reduce heat stress. Given the nature of climate vulnerability, an integrated approach to adaptation will likely have the greatest success in reducing future risk for producers.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ykvz7a-68-0ce3ad3a5d6bb8a450466ca527fd5b9b\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ykvz7a-68-0ce3ad3a5d6bb8a450466ca527fd5b9b{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ykvz7a-68-0ce3ad3a5d6bb8a450466ca527fd5b9b hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-100  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-58-02c62f0ca82812e24710873139d3973e'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Guillermo Ortiz-Col\u00f3n; Stephen J. Fain; Isabel K. Par\u00e9s; Jaime Curbelo-Rodr\u00edguez; Esbal Jim\u00e9nez-Cab\u00e1n; Melvin Pag\u00e1n-Morales; William A. Gould<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2018<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Climatic Change<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-2110-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-2110-1<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ij0ng6-66-036151bf3ee8f3aecff98359f44768e5\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ij0ng6-66-036151bf3ee8f3aecff98359f44768e5{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ij0ng6-66-036151bf3ee8f3aecff98359f44768e5 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-102  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-65-be7476a99a021f8e0068e31bbdac4b37'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Ortiz-Col\u00f3n, Guillermo; Fain, Stephen J.; Par\u00e9s, Isabel K.; Curbelo-Rodr\u00edguez, Jaime; Jim\u00e9nez-Cab\u00e1n, Esbal; Pag\u00e1n-Morales, Melvin; Gould, William A. 2018. Assessing climate vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies for resilient beef and dairy operations in the tropics. Climatic Change. 146(1-2): 47-58. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-2110-1.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-64-9bc9d8fae67cac0055f2389719ca225c\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-64-9bc9d8fae67cac0055f2389719ca225c{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-64-9bc9d8fae67cac0055f2389719ca225c{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-64-9bc9d8fae67cac0055f2389719ca225c av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-104  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-61-ac67b5a9e7039ab439b1deb55a280b9c'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2018_ortiz-colon.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2018_ortiz-colon<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15da1ee-62-c650c39592d3ec503cc7500662234d40\">\n.flex_column.av-15da1ee-62-c650c39592d3ec503cc7500662234d40{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-15da1ee-62-c650c39592d3ec503cc7500662234d40 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-106  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-52-cb2515b62c05f41318f60faad2718eb8'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2018_ortiz-colon.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Assessing climate vulnerabilities and adaptive strategies for resilient beef and dairy operations in the tropics (1.2 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-9'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-60-6d64fc3fbaf33a940338be2a7af802bb entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-108  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-59-a0a2efe23473d7077fac18c492d8e088\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-59-a0a2efe23473d7077fac18c492d8e088{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-59-a0a2efe23473d7077fac18c492d8e088{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-59-a0a2efe23473d7077fac18c492d8e088 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-109  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-29io2pi-1a1c32175ec1ce94d6367b71735fcb5d\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-29io2pi-1a1c32175ec1ce94d6367b71735fcb5d{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-29io2pi-1a1c32175ec1ce94d6367b71735fcb5d .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-29io2pi-1a1c32175ec1ce94d6367b71735fcb5d .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-29io2pi-1a1c32175ec1ce94d6367b71735fcb5d av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-110  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1h3zswm-fb2201af525539dccf167f90dd124698\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1h3zswm-fb2201af525539dccf167f90dd124698{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1h3zswm-fb2201af525539dccf167f90dd124698 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1h3zswm-fb2201af525539dccf167f90dd124698 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1h3zswm-fb2201af525539dccf167f90dd124698 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-111  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-56-67074c664b9610eb567716626e53018b'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce high-quality coffee. Here, we discuss the history of coffee in Puerto Rico, outline important bioclimatic parameters, and model current and future habitat suitability using statistically downscaled climate data. Model projections suggest that warming trends may surpass important temperature thresholds during the coming decades.Under high (A2) and mid-low (A1B) emission scenarios for 2011\u20132040, Puerto Rico is projected to exceed mean annual temperature parameters for growth of Coffea arabica. Warming and drying trends may accelerate after 2040 and could result in top producing municipalities losing 60\u2013 84% of highly suitable growing conditions by 2070. Under the A2 scenario, Puerto Rico may only retain 24 km2 of highly suitable conditions by 2071\u20132099. High temperatures and low precipitation levels can result in diminished quality and yields, as well as increased exposure and sensitivity to certain insects and diseases. The climate data and models used are based on best current understanding of climate and emission interactions with results best interpreted as projected climate trends rather than predictions of future weather. Planning, innovation, and adaptation provide promising avenues to address current and future socioecological challenges while building a model of sustainable and resilient coffee production in Puerto Rico and throughout the region.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ykvz7a-57-68e07ce580b933624309fa4f16c12ebe\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ykvz7a-57-68e07ce580b933624309fa4f16c12ebe{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ykvz7a-57-68e07ce580b933624309fa4f16c12ebe hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-113  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-47-5580f239ffcbe57f98b556b759fd2cdf'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Stephen J. Fain; Maya Qui\u00f1ones; Nora L. \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos; Isabel K. Par\u00e9s-Ramos; William A. Gould<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2017<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Climatic Change<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-1949-5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-1949-5<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ij0ng6-55-4e5a28a85cedbcaee146be2bad16d436\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ij0ng6-55-4e5a28a85cedbcaee146be2bad16d436{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ij0ng6-55-4e5a28a85cedbcaee146be2bad16d436 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-115  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-54-28d00a2b826de516d938ebe0405dd0a5'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Fain, Stephen J.; Qui\u00f1ones, Maya; \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos, Nora L.; Par\u00e9s-Ramos, Isabel K.; Gould, William A. 2017.Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. Climatic Change. 43(1): 141-. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-017-1949-5.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-53-1f6aa0f9e578afd45ac225cfdbbc91d4\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-53-1f6aa0f9e578afd45ac225cfdbbc91d4{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-53-1f6aa0f9e578afd45ac225cfdbbc91d4{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-53-1f6aa0f9e578afd45ac225cfdbbc91d4 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-117  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-50-92d1530441d392ce43057ec438f160fc'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_fain001.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2017_fain001<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15da1ee-51-e58954f0a780e41608409ae7f04b3400\">\n.flex_column.av-15da1ee-51-e58954f0a780e41608409ae7f04b3400{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-15da1ee-51-e58954f0a780e41608409ae7f04b3400 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-119  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-41-3e7784f4792d7b2eb31483be6ffe0f63'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_fain001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico (1.7 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-10'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-49-3d026fff5eafec3b75acfd4ecdf669dd entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-121  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-48-cacfeea27336519b87af66352975748e\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-48-cacfeea27336519b87af66352975748e{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-48-cacfeea27336519b87af66352975748e{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-48-cacfeea27336519b87af66352975748e av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-122  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-11hnw1i-dd922e0c5488ef8125e0d9e5d367837d\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-11hnw1i-dd922e0c5488ef8125e0d9e5d367837d{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-11hnw1i-dd922e0c5488ef8125e0d9e5d367837d .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-11hnw1i-dd922e0c5488ef8125e0d9e5d367837d .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-11hnw1i-dd922e0c5488ef8125e0d9e5d367837d av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-123  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Declining human population but increasing residential development around protected areas in Puerto Rico<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kxr4nq-05a81852b93b9228cb65b29c7e31fb55\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-kxr4nq-05a81852b93b9228cb65b29c7e31fb55{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-kxr4nq-05a81852b93b9228cb65b29c7e31fb55 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-kxr4nq-05a81852b93b9228cb65b29c7e31fb55 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-kxr4nq-05a81852b93b9228cb65b29c7e31fb55 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-124  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-45-c0190466f9f07b35ef422b60cd0d8f4d'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Increasing residential development around protected areas is a major threat for protected areas worldwide, and human population growth is often the most important cause. However, population is decreasing in many regions as a result of socio-economic changes, and it is unclear how residential development around protected areas is affected in these situations. We investigated whether decreasing human population alleviates pressures from residential development around protected areas, using Puerto Rico\u2014an island with declining population\u2014as a case study. We calculated population and housing changes from the 2000 to 2010 census around 124 protected areas, using buffers of different sizes. We found that the number of houses around protected areas continued to increase while population declined both around protected areas and island-wide. A total of 32,300 new houses were constructed within only 1 km from protected areas, while population declined by 28,868 within the same area. At the same time, 90% of protected areas showed increases in housing in the surrounding lands, 47% showed population declines, and 40% showed population increases, revealing strong spatial variations. Our results highlight that residential development remains an important component of lands surrounding protected areas in Puerto Rico, but the spatial variations in population and housing changes indicate that management actions in response to housing effects may need to be individually targeted. More broadly, our findings reinforce the awareness that residential development effects on protected areas are most likely widespread and common in many socioeconomic and demographic settings.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ykvz7a-46-cfb1ef0dea7a913daaccbe4e82967583\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ykvz7a-46-cfb1ef0dea7a913daaccbe4e82967583{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ykvz7a-46-cfb1ef0dea7a913daaccbe4e82967583 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-126  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-36-0c6a01cde30255c54ccbf62908f3c7b1'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> J. Castro-Prieto; S. Martinuzzi; V.C. Radeloff; D.P. Helmers; M. Qui\u00f1ones; W.A. Gould<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2017<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Biological Conservation<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.biocon.2017.02.037\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.biocon.2017.02.037<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ij0ng6-44-330a19e541b5b809b0ecdb5824d5f332\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ij0ng6-44-330a19e541b5b809b0ecdb5824d5f332{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ij0ng6-44-330a19e541b5b809b0ecdb5824d5f332 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-128  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-43-f892b1e9b3f070f8c77dd86058c9b777'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Castro-Prieto, J.; Martinuzzi, S.; Radeloff, V.C.; Helmers, D.P.; Qui\u00f1ones, M.; Gould, W.A. 2017.Declining human population but increasing residential development around protected areas in Puerto Rico. Biological Conservation. 209: 473-481. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.biocon.2017.02.037.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-42-5c2596100c3f7fc4c4f12fe1f6695d7b\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-42-5c2596100c3f7fc4c4f12fe1f6695d7b{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-42-5c2596100c3f7fc4c4f12fe1f6695d7b{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-42-5c2596100c3f7fc4c4f12fe1f6695d7b av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-130  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-39-9894c50bc81aadb9fa9b3d758783a4e9'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_castro001.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2017_castro001<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15da1ee-40-de0634b054158544d6fdaf0f427e367f\">\n.flex_column.av-15da1ee-40-de0634b054158544d6fdaf0f427e367f{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-15da1ee-40-de0634b054158544d6fdaf0f427e367f av_one_full  avia-builder-el-132  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-30-47a79e627d14df7bdeb74ba70321fba1'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_castro001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Declining human population but increasing residential development around protected areas in Puerto Rico (1.3 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-11'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-38-e6962267f421aeba916d6254aab2ef2b entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-134  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_layout_row  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-37-f0f32cb3aa589d3c0ca38fc8d03f9dcb\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-37-f0f32cb3aa589d3c0ca38fc8d03f9dcb{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-37-f0f32cb3aa589d3c0ca38fc8d03f9dcb{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-37-f0f32cb3aa589d3c0ca38fc8d03f9dcb av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-135  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-34-d8a67d832cea7ae13fb808bf6776e070'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><div id=\"LandUse-PR\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-z4l2ws-cca2e9bda711829b1cde3c89168c1734\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-z4l2ws-cca2e9bda711829b1cde3c89168c1734{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-z4l2ws-cca2e9bda711829b1cde3c89168c1734 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-z4l2ws-cca2e9bda711829b1cde3c89168c1734 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-z4l2ws-cca2e9bda711829b1cde3c89168c1734 av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-137  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_heading '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Land Use, Conservation, Forestry, and Agriculture in Puerto Rico<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-w1db3w-d62b2f4a4da2b65eb21e4052894d756d\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-w1db3w-d62b2f4a4da2b65eb21e4052894d756d{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-w1db3w-d62b2f4a4da2b65eb21e4052894d756d .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-w1db3w-d62b2f4a4da2b65eb21e4052894d756d .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-w1db3w-d62b2f4a4da2b65eb21e4052894d756d av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-138  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-25-f7cdc453a544cf2196394ea7ce73f48d'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Global food security concerns emphasize the need for sustainable agriculture and local food production. In Puerto Rico, over 80 percent of food is imported, and local production levels have reached historical lows. Efforts to increase local food production are driven by government agencies, non-government organizations, farmers, and consumers. Integration of geographic information helps plan and balance the reinvention and invigoration of the agriculture sector while maintaining ecological services. We used simple criteria that included currently protected lands and the importance of slope and forest cover in protection from erosion to identify land well-suited for conservation, agriculture and forestry in Puerto Rico. Within these categories we assessed U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) farmland soils classification data, lands currently in agricultural production, current land cover, and current land use planning designations. We found that developed lands occupy 13 percent of Puerto Rico; lands well-suited for conservation that include protected areas, riparian buffers, lands surrounding reservoirs, wetlands, beaches, and salt flats, occupy 45 percent of Puerto Rico; potential working lands encompass 42 percent of Puerto Rico. These include lands well-suited for mechanized and non-mechanized agriculture, such as row and specialty crops, livestock, dairy, hay, pasture, and fruits, which occupy 23 percent of Puerto Rico; and areas suitable for forestry production, such as timber and non-timber products, agroforestry, and shade coffee, which occupy 19 percent of Puerto Rico.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ykvz7a-35-e7dfe5bcdc1dc328671610207b712f0f\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ykvz7a-35-e7dfe5bcdc1dc328671610207b712f0f{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ykvz7a-35-e7dfe5bcdc1dc328671610207b712f0f hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-140  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-24-b27317b5c3d1a6cb40042d84a5040dcd'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> William A. Gould; Frank H. Wadsworth; Maya Quinones; Stephen J. Fain; Nora L. \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2017<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Forests<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/f8070242\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/f8070242<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ij0ng6-33-58d38d4ddb299dd157d3f3c5a5956d2f\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ij0ng6-33-58d38d4ddb299dd157d3f3c5a5956d2f{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ij0ng6-33-58d38d4ddb299dd157d3f3c5a5956d2f hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-142  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-32-efd84c76389e197a3ef9e28a79fa2c79'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Gould, William A.; Wadsworth, Frank H.; Qui\u00f1ones, Maya; Fain, Stephen J.; \u00c1lvarez-Berr\u00edos, Nora L. 2017. Land Use, Conservation, Forestry, and Agriculture in Puerto Rico. Forests. 8(7): 242-. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/f8070242.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-31-72336b480e94efd674ca1b371d92e819\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-31-72336b480e94efd674ca1b371d92e819{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-31-72336b480e94efd674ca1b371d92e819{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-31-72336b480e94efd674ca1b371d92e819 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-144  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-28-0f84241d9b0b26c7f711705f06e56da2'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_gould001.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2017_gould001<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15da1ee-29-c55a924c09a3b6ddbe5abb455ba9ec82\">\n.flex_column.av-15da1ee-29-c55a924c09a3b6ddbe5abb455ba9ec82{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-15da1ee-29-c55a924c09a3b6ddbe5abb455ba9ec82 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-146  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-18-97b732c41851f2574921e07e6395b884'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2017_gould001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Land Use, Conservation, Forestry, and Agriculture in Puerto Rico (20.4 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id='av-layout-grid-12'  class='av-layout-grid-container av-tbg4v7a-27-2cc53953f00f34764e77a0f641b0872a entry-content-wrapper main_color av-border-top-bottom av-flex-cells  avia-builder-el-148  el_after_av_layout_row  el_before_av_social_share  grid-row-not-first  container_wrap fullsize'  >\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-sql6tw6-26-da450db5fd7c69105e8adaa5445f7cc0\">\n.flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-26-da450db5fd7c69105e8adaa5445f7cc0{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-sql6tw6-26-da450db5fd7c69105e8adaa5445f7cc0{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-sql6tw6-26-da450db5fd7c69105e8adaa5445f7cc0 av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-149  el_before_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-first ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1a24kk6-ec348eb7f951ac4adc9813ddcf2bb700\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-1a24kk6-ec348eb7f951ac4adc9813ddcf2bb700{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-1a24kk6-ec348eb7f951ac4adc9813ddcf2bb700 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-1a24kk6-ec348eb7f951ac4adc9813ddcf2bb700 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-1a24kk6-ec348eb7f951ac4adc9813ddcf2bb700 av-special-heading-h2 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-150  el_before_av_heading  avia-builder-el-first '><h2 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning<\/h2><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-wnc646-16341634838929dff8c05f2964bd0f13\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-wnc646-16341634838929dff8c05f2964bd0f13{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-wnc646-16341634838929dff8c05f2964bd0f13 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-wnc646-16341634838929dff8c05f2964bd0f13 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-wnc646-16341634838929dff8c05f2964bd0f13 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-151  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Abstract<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-22-7ba07d99d19d247c61d945b137049d1d'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection\/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to decline in both model ensembles, but the decrease was more severe in the \u2018\u2018regionally consistent\u2019\u2019 models. The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960\u201390 period to the 2071\u201399 period was 4.6\u20139 degree C depending on the global emission scenarios and location. This warming may cause increases in CDD, and consequently increasing energy demands. Life zones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ykvz7a-23-759eb22e0b4f495c2f4b0667fda87d95\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ykvz7a-23-759eb22e0b4f495c2f4b0667fda87d95{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ykvz7a-23-759eb22e0b4f495c2f4b0667fda87d95 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-153  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-sgeft92-15-ac8b0cad38243fdbbd56229f1c2ea9c6'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Author(s):<\/strong> Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo<\/p>\n<p><strong>Date:<\/strong> 2016<\/p>\n<p><strong>Source:<\/strong> Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology<\/p>\n<p><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JAMC-D-15-0182.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JAMC-D-15-0182.1<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-1ij0ng6-21-ddfa24b4c69981b22bc4829b6cc725c6\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-1ij0ng6-21-ddfa24b4c69981b22bc4829b6cc725c6{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-1ij0ng6-21-ddfa24b4c69981b22bc4829b6cc725c6 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-155  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-2nt2ldi-20-8f00954af8af021822f9f769896492f7'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Citation<\/strong>: Henareh Khalyani, Azad; Gould, William A.; Harmsen, Eric; Terando, Adam; Quinones, Maya; Collazo, Jaime A. 2016. Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 55(2):265-282.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-rftpjrq-19-8c84adcc02f82e5bdfc842881adc22ad\">\n.flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-19-8c84adcc02f82e5bdfc842881adc22ad{\nvertical-align:top;\n}\n.responsive #top #wrap_all .flex_cell.av-rftpjrq-19-8c84adcc02f82e5bdfc842881adc22ad{\npadding:30px 30px 30px 30px !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_cell av-rftpjrq-19-8c84adcc02f82e5bdfc842881adc22ad av-gridrow-cell av_one_half no_margin  avia-builder-el-157  el_after_av_cell_one_half  avia-builder-el-last ' ><div class='flex_cell_inner'><p><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-16-9760f261f4813cd9fb0ae18d065fd25b'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2016_henareh001.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"width:600px;height:800px;\" data-width=\"600\" data-height=\"800\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">ja_iitf_2016_henareh001<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15da1ee-17-2ca2e6368ab16021468b37e01770829f\">\n.flex_column.av-15da1ee-17-2ca2e6368ab16021468b37e01770829f{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-15da1ee-17-2ca2e6368ab16021468b37e01770829f av_one_full  avia-builder-el-159  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding column-top-margin'     ><section  class='av_textblock_section av-qwnjvbq-14-d8d60071a9a6638831890807e1e3617d'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/CreativeWork\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\">Download <a href=\"https:\/\/caribbeanclimatehub.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ja_iitf_2016_henareh001.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning (3.1 MB PDF)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><div id='after_grid_row_12'  class='main_color av_default_container_wrap container_wrap fullsize'  ><div class='container av-section-cont-open' ><div class='template-page content  av-content-full alpha units'><div class='post-entry post-entry-type-page post-entry-18172'><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix'>\n<div  class='av-social-sharing-box av-naeyvq-242b80a9237a8172e9581277746592a7 av-social-sharing-box-default  avia-builder-el-161  el_after_av_layout_row  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